Thank you for putting so much thought and historical perspective into this essay about the many decisions and choices we made to get to where we are today. That's we, as in all who had the opportunity to vote and We The People.
For my brain this was a comfortable read. It gels with how I feel. That complexity has reached a level that makes all the various ways to poll and predict impossible. It’s easier to face another day hoping there is a chance, so I choose that to move forward, but not with confidence anymore. The rot is so deep and is being manipulated with such force, an underlying wave of rot. I try to focus on what I can do to create an empathetic, educated population of humans who can see that helping each other to the top is the only path to whatever success you’re looking for. All other paths lead to shame and self destruction. Instead of climbing out of the hole, the hole is getting deeper and the path out is harder everyday. I read all these brilliant writers, including yourself, looking for hope so I can continue to fight, but I’m really seeking truth to build a reality. Your article calls out the foundations flaws, without casting blame. You don’t name the enemy of our country’s rightward shift, because it’s too complicated. It’s all of us, some more than others, but we all have a role. Your truth doesn’t mean that we should give up. It reinforces the fact that our fight is forever. Not just the next election, but in changing the hearts and minds of Americans about how to face our existential fears. Not with bigger guns, but with more compassion. To live with faith that there is enough to share, and when you do, you live better by so many metrics that don’t figure into your bank accounts. There is an abundance of wealth, land and agriculture, we just don’t know how to distribute it to everyone’s satisfaction. Without a unified answer of what we want the world to be - we can’t know how to get there. Sorry, I’m just thinking out loud in your comments section. But I’ll leave it there and not be afraid- both that no one reads it, understands and agrees, which is most likely. But I will “hope” that I don’t inspire attacks from those who disagree. Thanks for the read.
Thank you Shannon. Sometimes I can’t always find the words. I agree compassion and helping others is the most important thing and something I practice. I admit I don’t have compassion for those that seem driven to create chaos and seem driven to create a two caste system where the majority can barely survive. It really breaks my heart. Thanks again.
Thanks for pushing back on this. It’s a fair challenge and deserves a straight answer.
You’re right that good forecasting models aren’t naive. They factor in presidential approval, generic ballot numbers, historical midterm patterns. They’re reading real signals and I said so in the essay.
The distinction I’m drawing is between electoral headwinds and structural ones. The models price in the former. They don’t have good tools for the latter. Voter roll purges don’t show up in polls. Gerrymandered maps decouple popular vote from seat count in ways historical models weren’t built to account for. The contested certification infrastructure is newer than the data the models learned from. The Justice Department’s changed posture toward election interference isn’t a polling variable.
Favorable fundamentals inside a compromised system don’t produce the same outcomes as favorable fundamentals inside a functioning one. The 70 percent assumes the game is being played by the rules the model was trained on. That’s the assumption I’m questioning, not the model’s math.
So to answer your question directly: I’m not disputing the 70 percent on its own terms. I’m disputing the terms.
I don't even think an onset of the worst social conditions in 100 years (joblessness, homelessness, hunger, et al) will change many Maga minds. Reason being, Newsmax and Fox will continue to explain it all away as the fault of the Dems. And worse yet, it wouldn't surprise me that the next act would be convincing them that it's time to get even. I hope I'm wrong, however, if I wasn't so old, I'd now be looking across the globe for some sort of safe haven. I've already advised my kids (with my grandkids in tow) that they should consider such a move for their families. It breaks my heart to even suggest such a thing, but the dark possibilities of continuing to hang here carry too much weight to disregard. Pretty sad, my friend.
p.s. I should add that one possible ray of hope could be confirmation that the 30% figure that is commonly used to represent 'the base' turns out to be a lot less than that. With all the lies, bots, and disinformation running rampant these days, it wouldn't totally surprise me to find it a ruse. Not to mention, it boggles my mind to think that 3 in 10 people in this country think everything is just dandy. Actually 1 in 10 seems high. So in the end, I'm clinging to the notion that we might waaaay outnumber them, in which case, a re-set might be possible.....influenced, in particular, by that very important metric.
Thank you for putting so much thought and historical perspective into this essay about the many decisions and choices we made to get to where we are today. That's we, as in all who had the opportunity to vote and We The People.
Dino, thank you for everything you write and for explaining things.
For my brain this was a comfortable read. It gels with how I feel. That complexity has reached a level that makes all the various ways to poll and predict impossible. It’s easier to face another day hoping there is a chance, so I choose that to move forward, but not with confidence anymore. The rot is so deep and is being manipulated with such force, an underlying wave of rot. I try to focus on what I can do to create an empathetic, educated population of humans who can see that helping each other to the top is the only path to whatever success you’re looking for. All other paths lead to shame and self destruction. Instead of climbing out of the hole, the hole is getting deeper and the path out is harder everyday. I read all these brilliant writers, including yourself, looking for hope so I can continue to fight, but I’m really seeking truth to build a reality. Your article calls out the foundations flaws, without casting blame. You don’t name the enemy of our country’s rightward shift, because it’s too complicated. It’s all of us, some more than others, but we all have a role. Your truth doesn’t mean that we should give up. It reinforces the fact that our fight is forever. Not just the next election, but in changing the hearts and minds of Americans about how to face our existential fears. Not with bigger guns, but with more compassion. To live with faith that there is enough to share, and when you do, you live better by so many metrics that don’t figure into your bank accounts. There is an abundance of wealth, land and agriculture, we just don’t know how to distribute it to everyone’s satisfaction. Without a unified answer of what we want the world to be - we can’t know how to get there. Sorry, I’m just thinking out loud in your comments section. But I’ll leave it there and not be afraid- both that no one reads it, understands and agrees, which is most likely. But I will “hope” that I don’t inspire attacks from those who disagree. Thanks for the read.
Thank you Shannon. Sometimes I can’t always find the words. I agree compassion and helping others is the most important thing and something I practice. I admit I don’t have compassion for those that seem driven to create chaos and seem driven to create a two caste system where the majority can barely survive. It really breaks my heart. Thanks again.
If you look at surveys the nonvoter pool is pretty blue too
I am confused. Are you disputing the 70% probability or what? This probability already takes into account the headwinds that you described
Thanks for pushing back on this. It’s a fair challenge and deserves a straight answer.
You’re right that good forecasting models aren’t naive. They factor in presidential approval, generic ballot numbers, historical midterm patterns. They’re reading real signals and I said so in the essay.
The distinction I’m drawing is between electoral headwinds and structural ones. The models price in the former. They don’t have good tools for the latter. Voter roll purges don’t show up in polls. Gerrymandered maps decouple popular vote from seat count in ways historical models weren’t built to account for. The contested certification infrastructure is newer than the data the models learned from. The Justice Department’s changed posture toward election interference isn’t a polling variable.
Favorable fundamentals inside a compromised system don’t produce the same outcomes as favorable fundamentals inside a functioning one. The 70 percent assumes the game is being played by the rules the model was trained on. That’s the assumption I’m questioning, not the model’s math.
So to answer your question directly: I’m not disputing the 70 percent on its own terms. I’m disputing the terms.
I don't even think an onset of the worst social conditions in 100 years (joblessness, homelessness, hunger, et al) will change many Maga minds. Reason being, Newsmax and Fox will continue to explain it all away as the fault of the Dems. And worse yet, it wouldn't surprise me that the next act would be convincing them that it's time to get even. I hope I'm wrong, however, if I wasn't so old, I'd now be looking across the globe for some sort of safe haven. I've already advised my kids (with my grandkids in tow) that they should consider such a move for their families. It breaks my heart to even suggest such a thing, but the dark possibilities of continuing to hang here carry too much weight to disregard. Pretty sad, my friend.
p.s. I should add that one possible ray of hope could be confirmation that the 30% figure that is commonly used to represent 'the base' turns out to be a lot less than that. With all the lies, bots, and disinformation running rampant these days, it wouldn't totally surprise me to find it a ruse. Not to mention, it boggles my mind to think that 3 in 10 people in this country think everything is just dandy. Actually 1 in 10 seems high. So in the end, I'm clinging to the notion that we might waaaay outnumber them, in which case, a re-set might be possible.....influenced, in particular, by that very important metric.
I’ve never wanted to be more wrong.